Source: Source | Observer Network
► Chen Xiangmiao, columnist of Wen Observer Network
On March 5, the Philippines intruded into the waters adjacent to Ren'ai Reef in China's Nansha Islands. The video evidence shows that the Philippine ship approached the Chinese Coast Guard 21551 boat in danger and was sprayed by the warning water cannon of the Chinese Coast Guard.
Later, the Chinese Foreign Ministry, while refuting the US's unreasonable accusations against China, advised the US not to use the Philippines as a pawn to disturb the situation in the South China Sea.
Since 2024, the tense confrontation between China and the Philippines on Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef has increased rather than decreased. In addition to Ren'ai Reef, the so-called "transportation and replenishment operations" of Philippine Coast Guard and Fishery and Aquatic Resources Bureau vessels on Huangyan Island, Zhongsha Islands, are constantly increasing and becoming more normal. The Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Arnold announced at the beginning of February that the Philippine Coast Guard and the Fishery and Aquatic Resources Bureau will rotate their ships on Huangyan Island regularly. These are just the continuation of the tense competition between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea since January 2023.
Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef are only part of the dispute over the South China Sea between China and the Philippines, and are just the tip of the iceberg of the complicated South China Sea dispute. But it is this part that affects the development of China Philippines relations, the situation in the South China Sea, and even the relationship between China and the United States. It seems that we are falling into a "black hole" in the South China Sea that is invisible to the naked eye but actually exists. This "black hole" in the South China Sea not only devours the basis of China Philippines relations, but also absorbs the entire security situation in the South China Sea and geopolitical competition among major countries with strong gravity.
The "black hole" in the South China Sea appears
Since January 2023, the conflict between China and the Philippines in Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island has intensified, and the frequency and tension of maritime confrontation have escalated, which has become an issue that affects the whole body, showing the characteristics of "black holes" in physics.
The gravity of black holes is so great that no light can escape from their event horizon (image source: IC photo)
One feature: high contradiction density.
The contradiction between Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island integrates three structural contradictions, namely, the conflict of territorial claims, the confrontation of national emotions, and the geopolitical competition between China and the United States. Enough evidence proves that Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef are not within the scope of the 1898 Paris Peace Treaty (Paris Treaty), the 1900 Treaty between the United States and Spain on the cession of Philippine outlying islands, and the 1930 Treaty on the delimitation of the boundary between British North Borneo and the United States Philippines, which determine the territory of the Philippines.
Since 2023, the Philippines has completely removed the mask of "technical stranding" fabricated in May 1999, revealing its true face of trying to take Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island as its own in the form of "sitting on the beach". The superposition of territorial claims, resource development, humanitarian supplies and other factors, as well as the strong exaggeration and dissemination of news agencies and we media platforms, have made the national sentiment of the people of China and the Philippines towards Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island remain high for a while.
In addition, Huangyan Island is adjacent to the "Sanba Strait" (Babayan Strait, Balintong Strait, and Bashi Strait) to the north, only 100 nautical miles to the east from the important strategic location of Subic Bay in the Philippines, and facing the Xisha Islands and Hainan Island in China to the west. It is regarded by the United States as a fortress of strategic significance to defend the first island chain and contain China. Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef echo from north to south, and the conflict of territorial claims, ethnic antagonism and geopolitical competition form a "black hole" in the South China Sea with a high density of contradictions.
The second feature: the focus of controversy is expanding.
The "black hole" in the South China Sea has been expanding to other aspects involving disputes in the South China Sea, and more and more countries outside the region have been deeply involved in it. The essence of the dispute between China and the Philippines over Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef is the conflict of territorial sovereignty claims of islands and reefs. However, since 2023, the focus of the conflict between the two countries in these two places has gradually expanded to environmental protection, island and reef construction, resource development, sea area control and other fields. Since September last year, the Philippines, together with the United States and Australia, has institutionalized joint air and sea patrols in the South China Sea, focusing on Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef. The Philippines also said that it planned to build permanent facilities on the Ren'ai Reef.
In the middle of February this year, the Philippine Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Bureau raised the so-called "China's Poisonous Fish in Huangyan Island" incident, accusing Chinese fishermen of using highly toxic chemical cyanide to fish and damaging coral and marine resources in the waters of Huangyan Island. In addition, since last year, Yang Yan of the Philippines will file the so-called "South China Sea Environmental Litigation Case", and will appeal to international arbitration or litigation for China's "destruction of coral reefs" and "illegal fishing" in the South China Sea. The newly released "Huangyan Island Poisonous Fish Incident" will surely become the best evidence.
In addition, Australia, Japan, Germany, Canada and some European countries have also followed the pace of the United States and expressed their position on the dispute between China and the Philippines over Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef, that is, they support the Philippines and blame China. The "black hole" in the South China Sea is gradually expanding at a visible speed, absorbing all other issues involved in the South China Sea related disputes, and also involving more and more countries outside the region.
Any attempt to ease tensions has not worked. Diplomatic consultations seem to lack the penetration into the "black hole" in the South China Sea. In December last year, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and Foreign Minister of the Philippines, spoke with Philippine Foreign Minister Manaro at request. The two sides reaffirmed that they should play a role in the maritime communication mechanism, manage differences, prevent conflicts and reduce maritime tensions. In January this year, China and the Philippines held the eighth meeting of the bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea issue in Shanghai, and agreed to "further improve the maritime communication mechanism, continue to properly manage maritime conflicts and differences through friendly consultations, and handle maritime emergencies."
However, the Philippines' actions on Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef have not been restrained due to friendly consultations between the two sides. Little Marcos made a speech in the Australian Parliament with strong words, claiming that "no land will be conceded" in the South China Sea. Before that, Little Marcos, as president, asked the Philippine Coast Guard and the Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Bureau to maintain their presence on Huangyan Island in the form of alternate deployment. Until now, China's efforts to prevent the contradiction between Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef between China and the Philippines from continuing to expand seem unable to penetrate the "black hole" in the South China Sea.
On December 21, 2023, the Foreign Ministers of China and the Philippines spoke (photo source: screenshot of the Chinese government website)
The United States and the Philippines are the "singularity" of the "black hole" in the South China Sea
The "black hole" in the South China Sea is not always there, but a masterpiece of cooperation between the Philippines and the United States.
Related disputes in the South China Sea began in the 1960s and early 1970s. In essence, some countries around the South China Sea have conflicts over territorial sovereignty and maritime jurisdiction over some islands and reefs in the Nansha Islands. It is worth mentioning that the Philippines is the first country to illegally occupy islands and reefs in the South China Sea by force. However, for a long time, as a regional maritime dispute, the South China Sea related dispute is only an issue among the disputing countries, not a major aspect affecting the development of China ASEAN relations. Relevant disputes at sea have been pending for a long time, but the disputing countries have maintained stable and smooth communication channels, and the maritime situation is generally controllable. In particular, the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, signed by China and the ten ASEAN countries in 2002, has brought a decade of relative stability to the situation in the South China Sea.
The black hole in the South China Sea began in the Aquino III period and was formed by the Little Marcos government. With the Huangyan Island incident between China and the Philippines as the main symbol, the situation in the South China Sea has entered a stage of long-term tension and warming since 2012, and has begun to have an impact on the relations between China and ASEAN and some countries. The South China Sea has gradually become an important area and field for the strength collision and mutual competition between China and the United States, and the "black hole" in the South China Sea has begun to form gradually.
In 2022, the domestic regime of the Philippines will change again. After the small Marcos government moves into the Malacca South Palace, it will back down the South China Sea policy of the Philippines, and the "black hole" in the South China Sea will accelerate its expansion. After 2023, the Little Marcos government betrayed its faith, deviated from the "gentlemen's agreement" reached between China and the Philippines, unilaterally suspended the three temporary special arrangements of not supplying humanitarian supplies, kept informed in advance, and established a verification mechanism, which wiped out the common understanding and tacit understanding between China and the Philippines on the issue of Ren'ai Reef.
China and the Philippines also had a tacit understanding in Huangyan Island. From a humanitarian perspective, China allowed Filipino fishermen to carry out fishing activities in nearby waters, and both sides maintained the status quo of control over Huangyan Island. The maritime action of the Little Marcos government aimed at "re controlling Huangyan Island" broke this tacit understanding, which is the main factor for the escalation of the contradiction between the two sides.
President Marcos Jr. of the Philippines (photo source: IC photo)
The actions of the Little Marcos government in Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef have received diplomatic, intelligence and deterrence support from the United States. The United States has repeatedly and pointedly reaffirmed the applicability of the 1951 United States Philippines Joint Defense Treaty to the South China Sea, provided on-site intelligence assistance for the Philippine Coast Guard and other official ships' operations in both places, and deployed naval surface ships to support the Philippines' frontline operations. On the one hand, these have given the Philippines confidence and courage to take maritime action, on the other hand, they have greatly improved the Philippines' navy Coast Guard, Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Agency's maritime operations capability.
The adjustment of the South China Sea policy of the Philippines and the United States and the stimulation of maritime action led to the accumulation and superposition of the "three structural contradictions" around Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef, and finally formed the "black hole" in the South China Sea currently visible to the naked eye.
China is beyond its power. Different from the combined thrust of the United States and the Philippines, China has been trying to avoid further escalation of the conflict between China and the Philippines in Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef. China has put forward the "three temporary special arrangements" between China and the Philippines on Ren'ai Reef, and has always abided by the tacit understanding between the two countries on Huangyan Island, and has made every effort to promote the establishment and maintenance of a smooth communication mechanism between China and the Philippines. However, there is a serious imbalance between China's pull force and the combined force of the Philippines and the United States. The United States and the Philippines, which occupy the absolute advantage, have gradually expanded the "black hole" in the South China Sea, which is out of control today.
The consequences of the "black hole" effect in the South China Sea appear
The biggest effect of the "black hole" is to swallow it constantly, and the contest between China and the Philippines in Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef is no exception. The "black hole" in the South China Sea not only intensifies the differences and contradictions between China and the Philippines around maritime disputes, but also has a swallowing effect on China Philippines relations, the situation in the South China Sea, China US relations and bilateral relations between China and some countries outside the South China Sea region.
One effect: it has become an unacceptable reality to define China Philippines relations with the "South China Sea dispute".
"The South China Sea issue is not the whole of China Philippines relations", which is the consensus reaffirmed in the joint statement of the heads of state of China and the Philippines when the Little Marcos government visited China last January. The core meaning of this consensus is that China and the Philippines should not define their bilateral relations by mutual maritime disputes. In other words, maritime disputes should not be given priority in bilateral relations.
During the Duterte administration, the transformation of China Philippines relations from "turnaround" to "upgrading" was to a large extent the decisive role of this consensus. However, since 2023, the "black hole" in the South China Sea has been devouring the mutual trust and cooperation foundation in China Philippines relations. The Philippines tried to suspend infrastructure projects including Mindanao Railway, Subic Clark Railway and Southern Long distance Railway, Chikou River Pump Station Irrigation Project, New Century Water Source Kavali Dam Project, Samar Island Davao Sea Crossing Bridge, as well as closed-circuit television projects in several cities in Manila metropolitan area, on the grounds of differences in loans and financing, These measures have something to do with the rising conflict between China and the Philippines in Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island.
Since 2024, the tough stance of the Little Marcos government on the issues of Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island has not been restrained, but has intensified. Therefore, it can be expected that the "South China Sea dispute" will also be the first consideration for the Philippines to define China Philippines relations in the future.
Effect 2: Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island are the most unstable factors that will affect the development of the situation in the South China Sea in 2024 and a long period in the future.
Taking stock of many uncertain factors affecting the development of the situation in the South China Sea in 2023, the confrontation between China and the Philippines in Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island is the first. Different from the unilateral oil and gas development, maritime patrol control, island reef construction and other issues in the disputed waters, Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef involve the sensitive issue of island reef occupation. "Do not take residential actions on uninhabited islands, reefs, beaches, sands or other natural structures", which is one of the core provisions of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, is also the red line for the parties to the dispute to stick to the beaten track since the 1990s.
However, the Philippines, on the ground of "technical failure" and "sitting on the beach", and under the cover of the South China Sea arbitration award, tried to solidify the actual occupation of Ren'ai Reef step by step and pocketed Huangyan Island, which has obviously touched the red line. Attempts to occupy uninhabited islands and reefs are far more sensitive than other unilateral actions, including oil and gas development, and the negative impact on the maritime security situation will also be fatal.
Effect 3: The space for competition between China and the US in the South China Sea becomes smaller.
The "Meiji Reef Incident" between China and the Philippines in 1995 prompted the United States to adjust the main direction of its South China Sea policy for the first time in history. The United States began to shift from "no stand, passive intervention" to "limited intervention" in the South China Sea related disputes. The "Huangyan Island Incident" between China and the Philippines in 2012 once again prompted the United States to reflect on whether the "limited intervention" policy in the South China Sea was in line with its interests. The then Obama administration has since brought the US South China Sea policy to a new stage of "active engagement and relative neutrality".
The United States regards the South China Sea as a "key geographical element" that concerns the strategic security of its first island chain and the continuation of its hegemony in the Western Pacific region, which has created an unprecedented sense of crisis for China's expanding influence and military strength advantage in the South China Sea. However, the contest between China and the United States in the South China Sea is part of the overall competition between the two countries in the Western Pacific region. For a long time, the understanding of the United States on "what on earth is opposed to China in the South China Sea" was vague. The research report of the Congressional Research Service of the United States attempts to clarify the specific contents of the United States' opposition to China in the South China Sea, including the prohibition of announcing the territorial sea baselines of the Nansha Islands. Among them, "no facility construction in Huangyan Island" is the top priority of the United States in many matters against China in the South China Sea.
The gradual formation of the "black hole" in the South China Sea since 2023 has further focused the United States on the competition in the South China Sea, that is, the United States has included Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef into the sea areas where the US Philippines military alliance treaty is mainly applicable and concerned. At the same time, the two places are also regarded as key areas for China and the United States to compete in diplomatic, military, legal, voice and other fields for advantages and influence at present and in the future. However, the more focused competition means that the space available for China US South China Sea competition is greatly squeezed.
South China Sea "Jiuduan Line" (picture source: network)
Escaping from the "black hole" in the South China Sea is not impossible
The "black hole" in the South China Sea is all man-made, and it is up to all parties concerned to jump out or escape. If the Philippines can abide by the consensus of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and the "gentlemen's agreement" reached between China and the Philippines, even if the differences and contradictions between the two countries on Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef cannot be completely resolved in the short term, it can avoid escalation and crisis. Without the Philippines as the focus, the United States will lose its focus on the issues of Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef.
The author believes that escaping from the "black hole" in the South China Sea can start from at least three aspects.
Establish isolation belt. The disputes between China and the Philippines around the South China Sea are complex, and the conflict of island and reef territorial claims is the core, including the South China Sea arbitration case, sea area control, fishery resources development and other aspects. Since last year, the Philippines has always associated the issues of Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef with arbitration cases, resource development, environmental protection, sea area control and other issues with Lenovo thinking, and has constantly sought the support and intervention of the United States, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries outside and within the region, which is the main reason for the rapid growth of the "black movement" in the South China Sea. In view of the objective fact that there are conflicts and contradictions between the two countries on Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef, China and the Philippines should, on the basis of the existing communication mechanism on the South China Sea issue, establish a special consultation mechanism aimed at resolving maritime emergencies to prevent differences and confrontation between the two countries from affecting other aspects of their maritime disputes.
Clarify current priorities. The essence of the differences and contradictions between China and the Philippines around Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island is the conflict of territorial sovereignty claims. It is obviously unrealistic to seek a short-term solution, but a thorough solution in the future cannot be separated from the accumulation of the present. From the political theory of crisis management and dispute settlement, the current practical task is to manage and control the sharp differences between the two countries, that is, to formulate "restrictive rules and norms of conduct" and strictly abide by them. These "restrictive rules and norms of conduct" include that the Philippines should not force its way into the lagoon of Huangyan Island and carry building materials for the construction of permanent fixed facilities to Ren'ai Reef, and the Philippines should keep its promise and maintain the tacit understanding and consensus between China and the Philippines.
The Chinese and Philippine governments have done a lot to guide national sentiment. The superposition effect of mobile Internet and We Media has an obvious impact on modern domestic and international politics, and has become a new variable affecting western election politics. The false news and over hyped interpretation around Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island are overwhelming on Twitter, Facebook, Tiao Yin and other We media platforms. In particular, some political forces and politicians in the Philippines are accustomed to using public sentiment to shape their own influence on government decision-making, while the president and departmental military and police dignitaries are trying to use Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island to express and maintain "political correctness" Position.
However, the mobilization of the people's national emotions will greatly interfere with the government's decision-making, which will greatly squeeze the space for the Chinese and Philippine governments to negotiate for the purpose of managing conflicts, differences and crises. Therefore, we should lower the tone of media public opinion, convey correct and valuable information to the public, supervise experts, scholars and opinion leaders to spread rational and objective emotions, and guide their own people to view the differences between China and the Philippines in Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island in a scientific and rational manner, which will release enough decision-making space for the government departments of the two countries.
In May 2012, in Binzhou, Shandong, people shouted "Huangyan Island is inviolable" on the advertising screen at their own expense (photo source: IC photo)
The Philippines, China, Vietnam, as well as the United States, Japan, Australia... Almost all countries within and outside the region are emphasizing the importance of the South China Sea. The difference is that for different countries, the meaning of this importance is different. The difference in understanding and cognition of the importance of the South China Sea does not prevent countries from including the South China Sea as a matter related to their major national strategies and interests. The conflict of interest demands is the original impetus for the formation and gradual expansion of the "black hole" in the South China Sea.
Today's "black hole" in the South China Sea may be centered on the contradictions and differences between China and the Philippines in Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef. However, if this situation continues, the "black hole" in the South China Sea will absorb all aspects of the relevant disputes in the South China Sea in the future, and eventually become the main factor determining the direction of the regional security situation and the construction of the future order, as well as the development of relations between China and ASEAN countries. Fortunately, the Philippines, Vietnam, China and other countries involved in the dispute have the key to solving the "black hole" in the South China Sea. The claimants should understand the special and important significance of this.
Editor in charge: Trish
